Its all business this year with Super Bowl 58 prop bets, because the fun and wacky wagers have all vanished. These are your top 5 big winners. The odds are in your favor.
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BuzzChomp and the Salem brothers are firmly behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the big game, which makes it a bit of a surprise that they are underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. We know football and that makes an ATS pick easy. Don’t even consider laying any points, because our thinking is that Kansas City can/will win outright. The spread is two, but picking a winner against the spread is the easy part. What about those amazing Super Bowl 58 prop bets? The fun ones are gone, so let’s break down some eye catchers before revealing our top five big winners.
There is literally no value in taking Patrick Mahomes for MVP. Just taking the Chiefs to win on the moneyline is almost identical odds. We don’t foresee a scenario in which Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes is not MVP, but there is nothing gained here by risking that. The only benefit to the Mahomes bet is the off-chance that he wins the award in a losing effort. If you want to argue that is more likely than a different Chief winning MVP, it’d be an interesting conversation to have, just not a smart one to put money on.
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If someone was feeling confident in San Francisco, a Brock Purdy MVP bet is probably smart, although Christian McCaffrey could siphon off a lot of the offensive production. The best MVP bet that is somewhat realistic is George Kittle at +7000. He is known to have huge games sprinkled around very quiet games. One of his huge games could be enough to overshadow Purdy in the right circumstances, and the payout is nearly unbeatable.
Fred Warner at +18000 is also fun if it turns into a defensive battle. Warner makes three or four game-changing plays every game. If he adds a large box score to that in terms of grabbing a couple combined interceptions and sacks, we are on our way. Why not toss ten bucks on a +18000 payout? Its a longshot for sure, but its tough to argue with the reward. Now in the non-Taylor Swift department, we have five Super Bowl 58 prop bets considered top wagers.
Top 5 Big Winners: Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
Todd Salem: A Perfect Pairing of Profit and Risk
Brock Purdy (+15.5) to finish with more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes. We know Mahomes is the better passer, but that doesn’t mean he’ll win this player matchup. Purdy has been required to sling the ball around a lot more. I expect something similar could happen here, especially if they fall behind again. The 49ers have the advantage in the pass catching unit, and I’m getting an extra 15.5 yards to boot.
In the previous two weeks, Purdy threw for 267 and 252 yards respectively. Mahomes threw it 39 times last game, but only accumulated 241 yards. The week prior, he barely threw it at all, finishing with 17 completions for 215 yards. I don’t consider this taking Purdy “over” Mahomes. Instead, it seems like the game plans and production are trending that way.
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Any player to have a 60+ yard reception: YES +470. I’m not sure how many games finish with at least one reception of over 60 yards. It’s probably very low. But this is the type of game, with ceiling-busting talent on both sides, where it could happen. The Niners have four game breakers on the field in nearly every alignment. KC has speed at wide receiver that can take the top off of defenses. It is also a fun one to root for and offers a nice return on a small wager.
George Kittle UNDER 3.5 receptions. Whether you take the Kittle MVP bet or not, this hedge is pretty smart. Kittle is a major boom-or-bust player in this offense. Playing in all 17 games of the regular season, Kittle topped 3.5 receptions just six times! In the playoffs, he has six catches in two games. He actually shows out much larger in SF losses for some reason, so maybe that plays against me also thinking the Chiefs will win. But the fact remains Kittle is the fourth option in this passing attack, and that leads to many dud performances, at least in the box score.
Dan Salem: Simple and Satisfying Winners
Race to 20 points: Chiefs +120. Deciding which team will get to 20 points first is based heavily on who you think will dominate in this game. Despite Vegas telling us everyone loves San Francisco, I’m fully behind a Super Bowl dominated by Kansas City. I like them with the points ATS, I like them to win and I also believe both teams exceed 20 points in the game. Take the OVER.
All this said, the odds favor the 49ers in the race to 20 points, probably because more people are betting on them. There is no factual reason for this to be the case. The Chiefs are going to be playing with a lead from the second quarter onward, so this was an easy pick for me. You get +120 with Kansas City and their more consistent offense. It doesn’t matter when it happens, just that they do it first.
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First Drive Result for the 49ers: Field-Goal Attempt +360. We must find the wagers with solid odds, not just ones we know will win. The outcome for both teams on their first drive is favored to be a punt. This should come as no surprise to anyone, since Super Bowls historically start slowly and Super Bowl 58 should be no different. Those odds stink!
We know the defenses are very good in Kansas City and San Francisco, but my instincts tell me the 49ers look frisky at the start and grab a field goal. It won’t last for too long, as I like the third quarter for most of the scoring to happen, but they get three points early. At +350 to win, this is a very nice wager.
Meet our Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor, Writer, and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s a published author, as well as an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on X and Instagram.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a fantasy football and fantasy baseball Staff Writer for RotoBaller. Follow him on X or comment below for his unfiltered opinions.
Super Bowl 58 prop bets Photo Credits: WWMT.com via Photojournalist Geoffrey Burres | KSNV and sportingnews.com AP photo
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