Both 1st and last place are predictable, but 3rd place in the AFC South is a hotbed of controversy. Which team will falter and claim third?
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As NFL minicamps get under way and the preseason inches closer, there are tons of stories around the league to monitor. From position battles to new coaching regimes to rookies in important spots, a laundry list of questions will find data in these next couple months before Week 1. They all will go toward answering the ultimate, overarching question: who is going to win.
To preview the 2026 season, we are going to go division-by-division and answering just one question about how that division is going to shake out. Next up is the AFC South. The question is: Who is going to finish in third place?
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The AFC South has taken quite the upswing here recently. Once the joke of the conference, South squads were dominant in 2025, amassing 36 total wins, tied for most in the AFC, and that’s counting Tennessee grabbing just three on its own.
Though the Titans made big moves this offseason, particularly on the sideline, we expect them to finish last once again in 2026. However, the rest of the division is completely up for grabs. We know what Houston and Jacksonville were a season ago: teams with superb records, great defenses, and dominant point differentials. They each received uneven play from highly talented quarterbacks and hope to get better results from their offense this season. Are the Colts in the same league as them? Who finishes in third place?
AFC South Battle for 3rd Place
Todd Salem: Jacksonville Is 3rd Banana
The one team you might think is lagging behind that discussion is Indianapolis. The Colts finished a distant third in ’25, but that was thanks almost entirely to Daniel Jones getting hurt. Now, admittedly, Jones always gets hurt, but let’s recall what this team was with a healthy quarterback. The Colts began last season 8-2, arguably the best team in the sport heading into their Week 11 bye. From there, the schedule got very tough, Jones eventually got hurt, and they lost their final seven games in a row.
Jones is re-signed and back. Along with Jonathan Taylor, breakout Alec Pierce, rookie sensation Tyler Warren entering his second season, and a good offensive line, Indy is set up to have the best offense in the division.
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The defense is the lagging unit, though the front office made a huge splash last year, as you recall well, trading for Sauce Gardner. They also added a couple front four pieces, including former Jet Micheal Clemons. (Not sure accumulating Jets is a solid strategy.)
Compare this squad to the aforementioned Jaguars. Jacksonville had a great defensive year last year thanks to a good front four and not much else. Rookie Travis Hunter was supposed to take over the league, and instead he fizzled and got hurt. On offense, the Jags clearly got worse. They lost Travis Etienne, used their highest draft pick on a backup tight end, and have no idea what they are going to get from Brian Thomas Jr, ostensibly their best offensive player.
I like Houston ahead of both of these teams, which is why I’m not delving into them very deeply. They have by far the best defense of the group and arguably the best QB (despite last postseason). So if I’m comparing JAX and IND, how much weight do we put on the head coaches?
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Liam Coen had a breakout first year on the sidelines. He was a breakout OC in Tampa Bay before that. Do we just assume he keeps getting better and immediately becomes one of the elite coaches in the conference? I’m not so sure. Just look at Shane Steichen in Indy, whose career followed a similar trajectory. He encountered troubles in his second year as head man, though has never finished worse than 8-9. I’m not ready to say Coen is definitively a better coach than Steichen and, to me, that would be the strongest argument for putting Jacksonville ahead of Indy this season. I don’t buy it.
Jags finish third.
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Dan Salem: Jaguars Don’t Cut It
Well, well, well how the turn tables have flipped over. The AFC South is an excellent division, but it will be extremely challenging for these teams to all remain playoff worthy in 2026. There are simply too many very good teams in the AFC, more than two per division, meaning someone must step back. Who will it be in the South division?
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Choosing third place feels like the hardest question to answer, so thanks for posing it. We agree that Tennessee holds onto last place, even though I expect major strides from this team this season. Let’s call the Titans one year away from being truly competitive. Let’s also call Houston number one, because they are easily the best team offensively and defensively. They may only be a 10 win team, but they will be first in the AFC South.
Both my gut instinct and my money are on the Colts improving this season. The 8-2 start was no fluke, but the 7-loss finish was also not an anomaly. Resilience comes with experience and Indianapolis gained plenty last year. They are the better team and frankly I like Daniel Jones over Trevor Lawrence at quarterback as well. I don’t think the Colts catch the Texans, but second place is all theirs.
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If I’ve learned anything about the Jaguars, it’s that they are inconsistent from season to season. Last year they were better than expectations, so this year I expect them to level off and take a small step backward. Jacksonville is a 7 or 8 win team at best in 2026, securing them third place in the AFC South division.
Meet our Sports Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on X, TikTok and Instagram. His latest film ‘Alone’ is now on Amazon.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a champion of fantasy football and fantasy baseball, dominating leagues for over two decades. Comment below on his unfiltered opinions.
AFC South Preview – This Is The End
Photo Credits: foxsports.com via Getty Images
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