Six quarterbacks and six picks make a tantalizing slate of hope for teams in the NFL Draft 2024. What are the odds that more than one gets it right?
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Six seems to be the magic number for the 2024 NFL Draft. The top six picks are where all the action lies. After six, there is a drop in intrigue. That doesn’t mean this draft is only six-deep in elite talent. On the contrary, it seems like the top six picks won’t even be the best six players thanks to part B of our magic number theory.
This draft also has a clear top six quarterback prospects. At least four of them are going to be selected in the top 10 picks, maybe in the top five. And all six are likely to be selected within the first two rounds. Those six quarterbacks are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix. They each fit into an interesting archetype at the position.
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Williams is the high ceiling player prone to taking too many chances.
Maye is the physical specimen who lets his mechanics slide.
Daniels is the undersized, freak athlete.
McCarthy is the college leader who flew up draft boards.
Penix is the injury-prone arm with bouts of grandeur.
Nix is the aged veteran who produces at every stop.
Obviously, not all six are created equal. No one is taking Nix over Maye, even if they are more confident in what he has shown on tape. That being said, is there an archetype ideal for the NFL level? Is it the athletic Daniels who may be too slight to hold up at the pro level? Is it the big arm and stature of Maye even if his consistency is lacking? Do you prefer a QB who is a proven winner at the collegiate level? Six seductive unknowns make for one giant spectacle.
NFL Draft 2024 QB Spectacle
Todd Salem: Three Tiers and No Sure Thing
If we’re starting from scratch, the highest ceiling is the answer. In real life, though, we are building into an already existing roster and locker room. Draft smokescreens are now trying to argue that maybe Daniels belongs at one, ahead of Williams. Maye used to be in that conversation, but now he is clearly a level below, though he could still be taken ahead of Daniels.
After those top three, if you are New England, or the Giants, or a team thinking of trading up, where is the line between taking, say, McCarthy, and waiting until the top of round two and grabbing Penix or Nix instead?
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Personally, I’m afraid of McCarthy. I hate the guys who rise up draft boards well after they’ve stopped playing football. He doesn’t have the arm talent of Maye or the athleticism of Daniels, though he can hold his own in both departments. We are rewarding him for leading an offense that was watered down and didn’t ask him to do much. Scouts are trying to figure out if that was because Michigan didn’t need him to do a lot, or if he was lacking the ability to succeed like some of these other guys did.
I’m a big fan of Penix in comparison. He was a strong-arm launcher, who liked to take shots down the field and often converted. Now, would McCarthy have put up better numbers in the Washington offense than he did in Michigan’s? Probably, but that doesn’t mean he would have done better than Penix. I like Penix’s game. The injury history is a concern, and I would say the NFL does a better job of protecting QBs, but after what happened last year, that argument falls apart.
Adding another wrinkle against my side of the discussion is the fact that Penix is about to turn 24 years old, nearly three years older than McCarthy. What will McCarthy look like after another three years of growth?
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Because of all the factors, the three tiers feel right. Williams, Maye, and Daniels are tier one; McCarthy is a tier unto himself; Penix and Nix are a third tier. It will be up to front offices to determine when is the time to pull the trigger on McCarthy, and/or what is the value of breaking into the tier three passers earlier than anyone else.
If we’re taking stands on all of this, Williams is my guy at one, and I’d rather have Maye than Daniels. I’d rather pass on McCarthy and use a less valuable asset on Penix, hoping I can keep him upright. We know all six are not going to succeed at the next level. It’s a craps shoot to determine who will and who won’t.
Dan Salem: Pass On All But One QB
With a whopping six quarterbacks being fawned over, one may assume the NFL Draft 2024 is about to deliver what we got several years ago with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and the one I forget because he’s no longer playing. We are not getting that overall high level of NFL quarterback from this year’s set of six passers. I’m betting two are at Mayfield’s level, but that’s it.
The hype is real and it has been for several years. It’s too soon to truly write off quarterbacks drafted last year, but only CJ Stroud stands out as successful as of today. That’s one guy. So the question of archetype is a loaded question, because NFL teams have pre-defined offenses already. They are not about to completely change their identity for a new quarterback, unless they are fully rebuilding. And even so, how do you know what this new quarterback will look like on the NFL field? You don’t, so you can’t really build around him until he starts playing for you.
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There are always the exceptions, but usually rookie quarterbacks succeed behind strong offensive lines and with a stable staff of offensive coaches. Continuity is king. Where does this leave our lucky six in 2024? I’m of the philosophy that drafting the best player available, ideally at a position of need, is the optimal draft strategy. That makes Caleb Williams a worthy selection, because he is easily the best quarterback available. Everyone else is not good enough to warrant drafting ahead of these other players who are going to be superstars. Ahem, Marvin Harrison Jr, ahem.
I realize three or four QBs are going in the top ten and I also agree with your set of tiers. That’s why I love taking a chance on Penix or Nix in round two. Being a “veteran” like Nix is a good thing entering the NFL, even if you are not quite as young as your peers. Being injury prone is bad, but who’s to say that isn’t behind Penix? The risk is lower with the reward being just as high, which is why rounds two and three are great places to choose a quarterback. Most don’t work out, but they are development projects in rounds two and three, not your team’s soon to be starter like those chosen in round one. As a coach and general manager, I’d rather bet my career on a stud offensive lineman who keeps my boring veteran QB upright, than a rookie QB who will get me fired in a year and a half if he stinks.
Meet our Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor, Writer, and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s a published author, as well as an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on X and Instagram.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a fantasy football and fantasy baseball Staff Writer for RotoBaller. Follow him on X or comment below for his unfiltered opinions.
NFL Draft 2024 Photo Credits: bostonsportsjournal.com and sandiegouniontribune.com via Getty Images
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