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New York Jets May Finally Be Improving in 2026
Will everything go right, or terribly wrong for the New York Jets in 2026? History be damned. This team may finally be improving.
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Over the past two months, we walked through each division in the NFL to determine where teams would finish in key turning points of their respective divisions. Sometimes, it was hard to find a winner; other times, third place was the sticking point. When we got to the AFC East, we both slotted in the New York Jets third without much discussion. It feels like a foregone conclusion this team is better than Miami but worse than both Buffalo and New England.
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But that is highlighting the most likely outcome. What if we live on the periphery instead? Where can the Jets be if we consider best-case and worst-case scenarios? We won’t limit this to a finish inside the East. Let’s also consider their place in the conference at-large. How does New York stand compared to the rest of the AFC?
New York Jets 2026 Outcomes
Todd Salem: Living on a Prayer
The first things to consider are the ceilings and floors of the head coach and quarterback. Two strikes against the Jets already? Aaron Glenn has had a hard time to begin his head coaching career. He’s only coached one season thus far, so it would be wrong to write him off, but he’s already on the hot seat for sure. This comes down to whether you believe Glenn can still become a good-to-great head coach in the NFL.
As a player in the 1990s and 2000s, he was a great defensive back. As an assistant coach, he broke out with Detroit under the guise of being a ‘personality’ guy. That isn’t meant to be pejorative. I just mean he was known for his personal impact on the players more than his x’s and o’s strategy. And we have seen plenty of coaches find great success not being strictly play-design elites.
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I bring this up because it would seem to me that it would take a head coach even longer to make an impact on a roster if he bred success through personality and relations. A superb play-caller could make his presence known Week 1, but his counterpart on the sidelines would need to, essentially, mold his roster over the course of months. It’s perhaps why we also saw the Jets trade away their highest-profile players during last season.
That is all to say I’m not ready to give up on Glenn, and I’m not ready to give up on Geno Smith either.
Smith was horrible in 2025, but he was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, led by an outmatched coaching staff, with no receiving corps. Now, in 2026, all that has swapped (with the possible exception of coaching staff). It doesn’t mean Geno will be great, but it is too soon to know if he’s completely washed until we see him sling it behind this line, throwing to Garrett Wilson and company.
Speaking of that company, the Jets have…a good offensive supporting cast? I love the depth at tight end and upside at receiver, though a lot will hinge on rookies Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper.
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Defense is another story. Led by a new defensive coordinator, this unit has a lot of ground to make up. The defensive line could be a strength, but it is hard to see highlights from any other portion of this unit, and as a whole, they will likely struggle.
So we have a question mark at coach, an under-the-radar solid offense (in my opinion), and a average-to-bad defense. Sounds kinda like a third-place team! But what about best-case scenario? If Glenn takes a second-year leap; if the rookie pass catchers are really good right away; if the offensive line stays healthy; if the defensive line becomes a force behind David Bailey; if the old guys on defense keep their legs all year; if they find one or two breakout players on defense that we aren’t expecting; if all or most of these things go their way, I think the Jets are a playoff contender, squarely in that third tier of AFC teams with the likes of Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Los Angeles.
Worst-case? Glenn is fireable, Smith is cooked, the rookies aren’t ready, the defense is horrid. This team could be a contender for first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
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Dan Salem: Optimism Is Dead
I usually enter a new NFL season with a bit too much optimism for my New York Jets. This season their offense is pretty good and has a ton of upside. The defense is climbing out of a terrible hole, but I only see it improving. It’s hard to imagine the Jets being any worse on defense, but they often find a new bottom. So how much of my optimism is warranted this year?
New York is certainly not better than Buffalo and can’t be slotted ahead of New England, because the Patriots put all their pieces together last year and retained most of them. Even with a slight decline from New England and other former playoff teams, the Jets will still be fighting for the scraps of playoff contention.
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I wish I were feeling better about New York, but perhaps low expectations are a good thing this season. Last year I viewed their ceiling as ten wins, New York’s best case scenario, but this year’s team is quite obviously better. Geno Smith is way better than Justin Fields and the offense as a whole has loads more playmakers. The defense is equally improved from last season, but the coaching staff is still an unknown in terms of quality. I’m not prepared to be optimistic. That ship sailed a few years ago, even if I was able to view a winning outcome for the 2025 team. The 2026 team is better and will play loads better, but will the outcome be any different?
Best case scenario for the 2026 New York Jets is a playoff spot and maybe even a winning record. I’d feel better about this team if the AFC competition weren’t so strong. There are easily two teams per division better than New York on paper, but the Jets can climb out of the basement if one major thing goes right on offense and defense, respectively. They need their offensive line to be dominant and they need their defensive secondary to challenge opposing quarterbacks and be disruptive. Based upon everything else I know about the Jets, if those two things happen, they will have a very good season.
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The worst case scenario for the Jets is obvious, because they’ve seemingly lived it over and over again during the last decade or more. Injuries or otherwise derail the offensive line, forcing Smith to rush his passes and make lots of mistakes. This holds the running game in check due to defenses stacking the box and the team can’t score enough points to compete. The secondary is a retread of last year, unable to make an interception, let alone stop passes from being completed. This puts all the onus on the pass rush, forcing the Jets to be overly aggressive and allowing opponents to walk all over them. We’re looking at another 3 or 4 win season and a top five pick in the draft.
I won’t bother to tell you which outcome is more likely, because the Jets keep falling on their faces year after year. Until New York proves it can improve, I’m reserving my optimism for things that deserve it, like my fantasy sports teams and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Meet our Sports Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on X, TikTok and Instagram. His latest film ‘Alone’ is now on Amazon.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a champion of fantasy football and fantasy baseball, dominating leagues for over two decades. Comment below on his unfiltered opinions.
New York Jets outcomes – This Is The End
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