Overreacting is passe, because getting your bias confirmed is SO MUCH worse. Cowboys, Lions and AFC East fans need to check themselves. NFL Week 2 is here to expose the truth.
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Everyone’s biggest focus after Week 1 of the NFL season is overreacting. We don’t want to overreact to one outcome that we didn’t see coming. It’s only one game, and the Chiefs were without two of their three best players. It was too wet and sloppy for Joe Burrow to feel comfortable. Let’s see the Packers and Rams do it again against better competition.
We all know how to disregard or hold off on making leaps that went against what most thought would happen. Small sample size; anything can happen in a one-game scenario; blah, blah, blah.
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But what about the opposite? Overreacting is one worry, but what could be even more damaging is immediately doubling down when an outcome goes your way. Week 1 overreactions are so 2022. Watch out for confirmation bias in NFL Week 2 of 2023.
When an outcome is unexpected, it is only natural to want more evidence. Don’t spend all of your fantasy football FAAB on wide receiver Puka Nacua when literally no one had heard of him before Sunday of week 1. But it can be just as damaging to have your beliefs confirmed handily right out of the gate. When that happens, it’s possible one will never back off their belief no matter what happens after. Bias rears its very ugly head in Week 2.
NFL Week 2: Confirmation Bias Is REAL
Todd Salem: We Know Nothing
I pegged Dallas as the best Super Bowl bet on the board prior to the season because of their talent and the odds. If the Cowboys had gotten trounced in Week 1, I would want more evidence I was wrong, but my guard would be up. Instead, we get the heaviest beatdown I can remember after John Michael Schmitz sent a low snap to Daniel Jones, submarining the first drive of the game. The Giants needn’t have taken the field after that.
Dallas a preseason Super Bowl bet? Week 1 confirmed they are the best team in league history. My work is done. From here, it would be easy to back Dallas one week after another, perhaps no matter what transpired. It could take someone multiple months of contrary evidence to stop correlating this feeling with the Dallas Cowboys.
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The fact that I was also low on the Giants entering the year could send this into a tailspin. Instead, I’m trying to open my mind to the work Dallas still needs to do and the strengths New York has moving forward. No future outcomes are set in stone.
Everyone agrees Week 1 is wonky. It is much harder to remember that Week 1 can be wonky, even if the outcome agrees with what you thought might happen.
Is the Detroit bandwagon right to rev the engine? Will Atlanta be a runaway division winner? Is Cleveland the actual team to beat in the AFC North? We both picked Los Angeles to finish second in the NFC West, ahead of Seattle. What is your Week 1 confirmation bias to avoid dying on? What stood out to you as confirming your deepest belief that you will now avoid falling into full bore?
Dan Salem: Bias Gets Ugly This Week
I was pretty confident the Buffalo Bills would take a step back this season and they looked every bit the disappointment in Week 1. This is not a hill to die on, because Buffalo was playing a great defense and made a ton of mistakes, but damn my suspicions were confirmed! They are not a juggernaut and can easily miss the playoffs. I won’t double down on that belief just yet, but I want to very badly.
I was also fairly confident that San Francisco is a great team, along with most every other NFL fan. They humiliated the Steelers, so we must be right! Yet I won’t die on this hill either, because it’s quite possible that Pittsburgh is just a bad team. It’s easy to beat up on inferior competition, so that does not make you the best team in the NFC. Let’s avoid this confirmation bias heading into NFL Week 2.
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Injuries often derail our expectations, but for everyone expecting the Jets to fail this season, don’t allow the Aaron Rodgers injury to confirm your doom and gloom expectations. The Jets are much better than last season and made the Bills look silly. If Buffalo is actually still a very good team, then New York is right there with them. I won’t rev the Detroit bandwagon just yet and I certainly won’t rev the Jets will always suck bandwagon either.
The great thing about football is that one more week of games often decimates our existing notions of what is real. NFL Week 2 will either confirm the Cowboys are great and the Jets stink, or it will prove both things to be foolish notions after one week of games and injuries. Cleveland trouncing Pittsburgh in week 2 and Detroit decimating the Seahawks in theory provides more confirmation bias, yet we don’t know if the opponents are any good just yet. Wins are banked no matter the circumstances, but we all know things don’t get truly real until Thanksgiving.
Meet our Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor, Writer, and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s a published author, as well as an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on Twitter and Instagram.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a fantasy football and fantasy baseball Staff Writer for RotoBaller. Follow him on Twitter or comment below for his unfiltered opinions.
NFL Week 2 Photo Credits: pff.com and dallasnews.com via Getty Images
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