Carter, quarterbacks and a slew of talent that no one knows if they’ll make the first round. Will big moves and leaps of faith dominate the NFL Draft 2023? We break down four huge questions.
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We enter NFL Draft 2023 week, and the story remains the questions at the top and throughout our first round. No one knows who is going first. We aren’t clear on a top five, the order of the top defenders, the order of the quarterbacks, when the first wide receiver or running back will come off the board, nothing.
The draft was also slightly upstaged by the inevitable trade of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. There were a lot of moving draft slices, but in the aggregate, Rodgers was likely dealt for a future first and a second, which ain’t a bad return for a guy who wasn’t going to play in Green Bay anymore. It’s also not a huge haul for New York to give up if Rodgers does indeed push them into title contention and play more than one season. Regardless, its draft week!
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On the draft front, this trade means Green Bay will now be selecting 13th, and the Jets move down to 15th in a pick swap. They traded a red apple for a green apple. This doesn’t feel like a huge deal in a draft that most people feel is weak on first-round talent. Will there be any repercussions? Is everyone pretty good, or is no one great?
New England is sitting between the Packers and Jets at 14. Perhaps Green Bay now grabs the draft’s first wide receiver, ahead of the Patriots. And perhaps that would be doing Bill Belichick a favor, since his taste in receivers during the draft is not something to be proud of. Piggybacking off that thought, with so much unknown, let’s run through a few major moves that will truly shape the NFL Draft 2023.
NFL Draft 2023 – Do These Major Moves Happen?
Does a wide receiver get selected in the top 12?
Todd Salem: The Packers and Patriots might both eschew WR for another position of need because both rosters have work to do. They might also both pivot if the top WR is already gone. I’m saying no, though. I don’t think any of the receivers in this class will require a top 12 selection to obtain.
The names in question would be Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Jalin Hyatt. Smith-Njigba blew everyone away at the combine, but even he doesn’t enter the draft process as an elite specimen at the position. None of these guys do. Are we entering an era where receivers are drafted earlier and earlier just because of the importance of the position, a la quarterback? Perhaps, but I don’t think things have gotten that carried away yet when it comes to pass catchers.
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Dan Salem: There may not be any receivers truly worthy of this high a pick, but I don’t see twelve needy teams all passing on the draft’s ‘best’ wide receiver simply because they have someone graded higher. Sure, the quarterbacks will get chosen, but how many? Sure, there are a ton of solid defenders and offensive lineman who technically grade higher. But how many players in this draft truly stand above? We are being generous if we say ten, and this includes our top running back who everyone assumes will not be chosen this early. Yes, I believe one wide receiver will get chosen before Green Bay is on the clock with pick thirteen. The need is simply too strong for everyone to go with the best player available, especially when the separation is smaller than most years.
Will any running back be taken in the first round?
Todd Salem: Everyone hates running back prospects nowadays. It makes sense. Their value is short-lived and often easily replaced or replicated. With that said, some folks think Bijan Robinson is one of the five or 10 best players in this entire class, regardless of position. Then the question becomes, how far does he drop based on positional importance?
We all figure he will drop quite a distance from the top 10, but out of the first round? If the over/under on backs in round one was 1.5, I would hammer the under, but that is a much simpler question to answer. In this case, yes, one team will pull the trigger on Robinson before pick 32.
Dan Salem: Yes, Robinson is absolutely getting drafted in the first round. My Jets got a steel in the second round last year with Breece Hall. Injury aside, you know a ton of teams regret passing on him late in round one. They won’t make the same mistake twice and Robinson will be the beneficiary. Since he stands so far ahead of the remaining running backs and there are no wide receivers who completely blow you away with their first round talent, I’d be shocked if Robinson isn’t selected before pick twenty.
Who gets selected first, Jalen Carter or the 4th quarterback off the board?
Todd Salem: This is fun because it feels like a valid question whether the players in question see a draft-day slide or not. Carter is a consensus top-five talent with off-field issues that are submarining his stock. He still could be selected within the first half dozen picks though. As could all four of the top passers!
The alternative sees Carter slide down the board into the teens. In that case, all four QBs could be gone. Although, that is not a guarantee. With the recent news of teams being in on Will Levis, the supposed fourth guy out of the top four quarterbacks, I think the quartet gets taken before Carter. It’s a risky pick considering his upside and talent and how teams are drawn to that. But it feels like teams are more likely to drop a guy on their draft board because of off-field concerns than they are to change their desire for a veteran in free agency with a similarly negative narrative.
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Dan Salem: Carter will absolutely get chosen first and it will be in round one. He is that talented and we know that at least Cleveland, Dallas, and Las Vegas don’t care all that much about off field character issues. Furthermore, I think much of the quarterback noise is a smoke screen. These guys are all bunched together and there is only slim separation. One or two will go in the top five, but after that teams can wait. Carter will get drafted before the fourth quarterback is off the board.
Will any other teams trade into the top five?
Todd Salem: Pick one has already been acquired. Houston at two, Arizona at three, and Indianapolis at four nearly all need quarterbacks. There are inklings that perhaps one might be pushing the decision another year down the road and improving the roster elsewhere. That gives us an opening, but I still don’t think they would be shopping their pick.
That leaves Seattle at five. Seattle has a short-term solution at QB in-house. The Seahawks love getting talent at cornerback, and the top of this class is rich at the position. There also could be a game-changing edge rusher still available at this pick. I’m going to say that Seattle stays put, and we don’t see any more of the top five selections moving to new teams.
Dan Salem: No, I don’t believe there will be another trade into the top five of the NFL Draft 2023. The teams with picks two through five are all very needy, not just at quarterback. This is always the case for teams who lost enough games to win such a selection, but this year in particular presents a unique opportunity. We have several players who don’t play quarterback that stand above the rest at their positions. We also have four quarterbacks that everyone apparently likes quite a bit. No one else is giving up their spot in the top five.
Meet our NFL Draft 2023 Writers:
Dan Salem is Lead Editor, Writer, and Co-owner of BuzzChomp. He’s a published author, as well as an award winning Actor, Director and Producer. Visit M Square Productions for his film work, or get lost in his old-school comedy on Pillow Talk TV. You can follow him on X and Instagram.
Todd Salem is a Staff Writer and Contributing Editor at BuzzChomp. He’s also a fantasy football and fantasy baseball Staff Writer for RotoBaller. Follow him on X or comment below for his unfiltered opinions.
NFL Draft 2023 Photo Credits: Erick Drost on FantasySixPack.net and SI.com
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