How to win your 2015 Fantasy Baseball league

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We all want to win our leagues, so what’s the hot new trend in 2015 Fantasy Baseball? Overpaying and over drafting on bounce back potential. Prepare to look smart or get totally burned as the new Fantasy Baseball season gets underway.

Seesaw Sports, where Dan Salem and Todd Salem throw down on the NFL, MLB, NBA and more. Two brothers from New York yell, scream and debate sports.

 

TODD:

Over the weekend, we held the auction draft of what I believe was the ninth year for our 12-team fantasy baseball keeper league. It’s always a fun time, even if the draft did push four hours this season!

Some occurrences during the draft opened my eyes to a few snippets about the new season that I hadn’t considered prior. I’m wondering if all these were strictly fantasy related (which would be fine because, come on, fantasy!) or were they larger points about how MLB coverage is trending.

The first thing that was incredibly obvious during the draft was how expensive, or more literally perhaps, how correctly priced so many “bounce-back” guys were. Of the heavy hitters who struggled last year, very few were had for a bargain this season.

I doubt this was just something from our league. Instead, I think it’s a case of people believing a career sample size over recency bias, which is a pretty new phenomenon.

Players like Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez and others were had for prices that would reflect the opinion that these guys are going to be fine this season. Okay, they didn’t go for top dollar like they might have two years ago, but there were no bargains either.

Meanwhile, guys on the other end of the spectrum (of the players who were not keepers) who crushed it last year were had for cheaper than the players who struggled.

Players like Kyle Seager, Charlie Blackmon, Brian Dozier and Devin Mesoraco all went for less than $20 apiece even though they demolished the former group in terms of 2014 production.

Baseball is a long season; careers are longer than other sports. It takes a good long while to build up a sample size that proves a point, whatever that point may be. That’s normally the explanation for all this. Underachieving and overachieving balance out if you wait long enough.

Or are we just too slow to realize or believe the change in a trend? After all, without shelling out a literal side-by-side comparison, that latter group has a roughly 162-game sample of being better, more healthy players than the batch who cost more money.

 

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DAN:

I’m no expert in how to win at fantasy baseball, but if I know one thing that has been proven true season after MLB season its that past performance, in this case 2013 and earlier, does not dictate future success. You know what often does, how players fared in the final three months of the year prior. This fantasy “trend” you speak of is an icy slope that is more likely to crush your team than make you look smart.

The baseball media loves to focus on the players we know, on the names we recognize. Comeback stories are fun and baseball desperately needs stars. The focus on players with past success is no coincidence, but letting it cloud your fantasy judgement is death.

That being said, I do think all of those players you mentioned will bounce back this season. However, its highly unlikely they bounce back to the same dominant levels of their past. Prince Fielder might reach that level, but Votto and Bruce and Gonzalez and Fielder all won’t. Some of those men have already peaked and will have an above average season in 2015 that is nothing close to being worth the fantasy price paid.

The trend I see in fantasy baseball is towards lesser name players shelling out major stats. This is especially true in the pitching game. A team’s closer in April is rarely their closer in June. I’d guess that only half of major league teams actually keep their opening day closer for a full season. Yet EVERY single relief pitcher that hit our auction block went for ten bucks or more. Most went for over fifteen dollars. That is craziness on another level. That is hedging a bet that is sure to lose.

As for players like Seager and Dozier, they were absolute steals for under twenty dollars. After putting up excellent numbers last season, it’s very likely they will perform well again. Sure, some players have one great year and then disappear. But most guys who excel, do so for three to five seasons. Add in that player being on an actual good ball club, and you can’t afford to pass on them in your fantasy draft.

Unlike fantasy football where you have lynchpin players and everything else is fluid week to week, in fantasy baseball you need to find balance. If what you noticed is a trend, it’s a trend against balance. It’s a trend against the new landscape of Major League Baseball that became obvious in 2014. The Kansas City Royals faced the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. The Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Baltimore Orioles were all very good. Smaller market clubs with homegrown talent are winning. Pitching is winning.

I love a good comeback, but until I see it I’m hard pressed to believe it. No one believes in Alex Rodriguez, but everyone is on board with Prince Fielder. Below are the two stat lines from each player’s last full season, Fielder’s in 2013 and A-rod’s in 2012. Can you tell me which belongs to Fielder and which to Rodriguez?

Player A: 82 runs, 174 hits, 25 HRs, 106 RBIs
Player B: 74 runs, 126 hits, 18 HRs, 57 RBIs

The RBIs probably give it away, but the point remains. Overpaying for a potential bounce back season is no way to win at Fantasy Baseball

 

 
 

Photo credits: BaseballHq.com, FantasyFootballDrafting.com, and MLB